Rice, dates, packed bags: Tehran braces for a possible return to war
Ahead of elections in Israel and the US, fear of new strikes is growing in Tehran. People are stockpiling supplies, and some have already packed to flee north. Meanwhile the government is hosting top officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey – and striking a defiant tone.
What happened
About eight months after the war between Iran and the US and Israel began, many Iranians fear a new escalation. According to the Associated Press, US President Donald Trump has vowed to "finish the job"; a third aircraft carrier and thousands of troops are heading to the region. Israel holds a close election on Tuesday, and the US midterms follow on November 3. Some fear strikes right afterwards. AP says negotiations have shown little progress for months; Iran demands that the US lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Washington wants unobstructed passage through the Strait of Hormuz and checks on Iran's nuclear programme.
On Monday, President Masoud Pezeshkian received the Saudi defence minister, Pakistan's army chief and Turkey's intelligence chief in Tehran – the three countries recently signed the so-called Mecca defence pact. According to the Tehran Times, the four countries agreed to continue talks on regional security. Al Jazeera reports that analysts are cautious about the prospects of success.
Economically, the country is under heavy strain. According to AP, the blockade has halted oil exports and caused medicine shortages, though there is no sign of shortages of food. Rice costs more than 60 percent more than before the war, beef more than 150 percent. The central bank's official rate on October 24 was about 1.85 million rials per dollar, while the open market rate was around 2.72 to 2.75 million, according to Trend News Agency.
The mood on the ground
AP spoke with people in Tehran who are preparing for the worst. A 35-year-old mother of a toddler is stockpiling over-the-counter medicine and food because she fears even bigger bombs. A 39-year-old worker bought extra dried dates, cooking oil and rice after attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. A 45-year-old gym trainer has packed his belongings to move to a safer town in the north and bought canned food, crackers and blankets.
Prices weigh on the mood as well: a 36-year-old mid-range salaried worker says one supermarket trip can eat up half of his monthly salary of 400 million rials (about 150 dollars). Exile broadcaster Iran International reported in early October that households are moving their money into gold, coins and dollars – as protection against the rial's slide, not out of confidence in the economy.
The cityscape is a constant reminder of the war: according to AP, Tehran is dotted with buildings bombed in the strikes of March and April. In a major square, a billboard shows a Trump impersonator behind bars, and passersby stop to look. A 30-year-old woman told AP that Trump claimed to act for Iranians but made their situation worse. A 50-year-old man doubts the elections will change anything, saying hostility towards Iran remains the same.
The state-aligned Tehran Times paints a very different picture: it mainly relays Pezeshkian's message that outside pressure has strengthened national unity and that the Iranian nation cannot be forced into surrender. The report contains no voices from the public and nothing on prices or supplies.
Voices from the media
Sources
This article was rewritten from local-language sources. Every statement about the mood is based on the linked reports.